Gold School
What is PCE, and why does gold care?
The short answer
These are the usual (textbook) reactions. Gold does not always follow them. Updated 3 October 2026.
What PCE is
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is another measure of US inflation, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
It matters because it is the measure the Fed uses for its 2% inflation target. Core PCE, which leaves out food and energy, is watched most closely.
How gold usually reacts
The same way as CPI: cooler inflation makes rate cuts more likely, which usually helps gold. Hotter inflation does the opposite.
PCE often moves gold less than CPI, because much of it can be estimated from CPI and other data released earlier in the month.
When it lands (UK time)
| Release | UK time | How often |
|---|---|---|
| US PCE inflation | 13:30 | Monthly, near the end of the month |
Watch for method changes
Statistics agencies sometimes change how they measure prices. A big surprise can partly come from a method change rather than real price moves. Good analysis checks for this before reading too much into one number.
Every upcoming date in UK time: PCE dates. Or add every big release to your phone calendar.
Get the verdict when the news lands
Big gold news, explained in plain English the moment it happens. Free.